what does wraith mean definition

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an apparition of a living person supposed to portend their death.

a visible spirit.

Origin of wraith

Other words from wraith.

• wraithlike, adjective

Words that may be confused with wraith

• wraith , wreath , wreathe , writhe

Words Nearby wraith

• Wrangel Island

Dictionary.com Unabridged Based on the Random House Unabridged Dictionary, © Random House, Inc. 2023

How to use wraith in a sentence

Even in those without mental illness, temporary changes in brain activity can lead to run-ins with wraiths.

Eulálio ends up being an idol, a wraith who, at 150, is not quite dead and not quite living.

The wraith -like coils that had left the mass above had straightened to sharp spear-heads of speed.

But I could smell the lilacs she had left, and the scent of them seemed like the wraith of her presence in the sunny room.

Like a little wraith miraculously tinted with bronze and blue she stopped and faced him piteously for a second.

Quite true, fair wraith ; but you are not the only ghost at this dance to-night.

Moya faced them tensely, a slim wraith of a girl with dark eyes that blazed.

British Dictionary definitions for wraith

/ ( reɪθ ) /

the apparition of a person living or thought to be alive, supposed to appear around the time of his death

a ghost or any apparition

an insubstantial copy of something

something pale, thin, and lacking in substance, such as a column of smoke

Derived forms of wraith

• wraithlike , adjective

Collins English Dictionary - Complete & Unabridged 2012 Digital Edition © William Collins Sons & Co. Ltd. 1979, 1986 © HarperCollins Publishers 1998, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012

Definition of 'wraith'

wraith in American English

Wraith in british english, examples of 'wraith' in a sentence wraith, trends of wraith.

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Definition of wraith noun from the Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary

• a wraith-like figure (= a very thin, pale person)

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Nearby words

Online Language Dictionaries

• 1.1 Etymology
• 1.2 Pronunciation
• 1.3.1 Derived terms
• 1.3.2 Translations
• 1.4 References
• 1.5 Further reading

English [ edit ]

Etymology [ edit ].

First attested 1513, in a Middle Scots translation of the Aeneid . [1] [2] [3]

The word has no certain etymology. J. R. R. Tolkien favored a link with writhe . Also compared are Scots warth and Old Norse vǫrðr ( “ watcher, guardian ” ) , whence Icelandic vörður ( “ guard ” ) . See also wray / bewray , from Middle English wreien . Perhaps from wrath as a wraith is a vengeful spirit.

Pronunciation [ edit ]

• enPR : rāth , IPA ( key ) : /ɹeɪθ/
• Rhymes: -eɪθ

Noun [ edit ]

wraith ( plural wraiths )

• 1912 February–July, Edgar Rice Burroughs , “Under the Moons of Mars”, in The All-Story , New York, N.Y.: Frank A. Munsey Co. , →OCLC ; republished as “Sola Tells Me Her Story”, in A Princess of Mars , Chicago, Ill.: A[lexander] C[aldwell] McClurg & Co. , 1917 October, →OCLC , pages 159–160 : We might indeed have been the wraiths of the departed dead upon the dead sea of that dying planet for all the sound or sign we made in passing.
• 2001 , Joyce Carol Oates , Middle Age: A Romance , paperback edition, Fourth Estate, page 80 : Like wraiths with the impediments of bodies they stumbled in the direction of Salthill faces.

Derived terms [ edit ]

Translations [ edit ], references [ edit ].

• ^ Gawin Douglas , transl.,(1513), chapter X, in Eneados , lines 81–82: Nor ȝit na vayn wrathys nor gaiſtis quent / Thi char conſtrenyt bakwart forto went Nor yet no vain wraiths nor quaint ghosts / constrained Thy chariot to go backward
• ^ Gawin Douglas , transl.,(1513), chapter XI, in Eneados , lines 95–96: Syklyke as that, thai ſay, in diuers placis / The wraithis walkis of goiſtis that ar ded Such as that, they say, in diverse places / The wraiths walk of ghosts that are dead
• ^ Gawin Douglas , transl.,(1513), chapter XI, in Eneados , lines 129–130: Thydder went this wrath or ſchaddo of Ene, / That ſemyt, all abaſyt, faſt to fle Thither went this wraith or shade of Ene, / That seemed, all abased, fast to flee

Further reading [ edit ]

• Cambridge Dictionary +Plus

English pronunciation of wraith

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(English pronunciations of wraith from the Cambridge Advanced Learner's Dictionary & Thesaurus and from the Cambridge Academic Content Dictionary , both sources © Cambridge University Press)

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existing as an idea, feeling, or quality, not as a material object

Vast, mahoosive and monstrous (Words meaning ‘very large’)

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What does wraith mean?

Definitions for wraith reɪθ wraith, this dictionary definitions page includes all the possible meanings, example usage and translations of the word wraith ., princeton's wordnet rate this definition: 0.0 / 0 votes.

ghost, shade, spook, wraith, specter, spectre noun

a mental representation of some haunting experience

"he looked like he had seen a ghost"; "it aroused specters from his past"

Wiktionary Rate this definition: 0.0 / 0 votes

• wraith noun

A ghost or specter, especially seen just after a person's death.

ChatGPT Rate this definition: 0.0 / 0 votes

A wraith is a type of ghost or spirit, often seen as an apparition or specter, typically thought to represent someone who is deceased. It is used in folklore and fantasy literature to describe a spirit or ghostly creature that is associated with death and despair. The term can also refer to a faint trace or remnant of something that no longer exists.

Webster Dictionary Rate this definition: 4.0 / 2 votes

Wraith noun

an apparition of a person in his exact likeness, seen before death, or a little after; hence, an apparition; a specter; a vision; an unreal image

sometimes, improperly, a spirit thought to preside over the waters; -- called also water wraith

Etymology: [Scot. wraith, warth; probably originally, a guardian angel, from Icel. vrr a warden, guardian, akin to E. ward. See Ward a guard.]

Chambers 20th Century Dictionary Rate this definition: 0.0 / 0 votes

rāth, n. a spectre: an apparition in the exact likeness of a person seen before or soon after his death. [Cf. dial. form warth , an apparition; prob. orig. having the sense of 'guardian spirit'—Ice. vörthr , a guardian.]

Surnames Frequency by Census Records Rate this definition: 0.0 / 0 votes

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Wraith is ranked #103181 in terms of the most common surnames in America. The Wraith surname appeared 174 times in the 2010 census and if you were to sample 100,000 people in the United States, approximately 0 would have the surname Wraith . 81.6% or 142 total occurrences were White . 12.6% or 22 total occurrences were of Hispanic origin.

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How to pronounce wraith.

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How to say wraith in sign language?

Chaldean Numerology

The numerical value of wraith in Chaldean Numerology is: 1

Pythagorean Numerology

The numerical value of wraith in Pythagorean Numerology is: 7

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• A.   elate
• B.   scarper
• C.   abduct
• D.   abash

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• wrain-staff
• wraithlike adj

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Sol (norse).

In the shadows of the night a creature emerges. The temperature drops, the atmosphere darkens, and an eerie chill descends over the land. Suddenly, you are overwhelmed with despair and hatred. Be on your guard – a wraith is nearby.

What is a Wraith

Little is known about wraiths other than their power and despair. These creatures are a type of Scottish ghost that had a history in black magic and sorcery during its lifetime.

Wraiths are said to be creatures that are created when something goes wrong in spellcasting. This is most often the result of a witch or wizard who tried – unsuccessfully – to extend the years of their lifespan or tried to manipulate time in some other form. The result is tragic. In some capacity they get their wish – they are now immortal beings with incredible power. The price they pay however, is extremely high. Their souls are taken away and they are condemned to never reach the spirit realm. This is a terrible fate considering that the spirit realm is often thought to be something similar to Heaven in most cultures and is at the very least considered to be an afterlife. Wraiths are denied this privilege and are forced to wander between dimensions for eternity.

Wraiths are soulless creatures and only feel devastating emotions like hatred and despair. They are a type of ghost, but can also be considered to be a type of demon. Though there are instances that wraiths can be considered ‘good’ (a specific kind of wraith known as a voror), most wraiths are inherently evil.

There are thought to be several kinds of wraiths. Most wraiths are evil creatures that seek to steal the souls of others. With a single touch, the wraith is able to drain the life out of a person and steal their soul. Whenever they steal the soul of a person, the victim is cursed to wander with them for eternity – unless of course the wraith is killed.

Can A Wraith Be Overpowered or Killed?

Wraiths are very powerful creatures and are, therefore, an extremely difficult foe to overcome. They can only be defeated by a holy presence or weapon. Being pure evil, they are not able to withstand holiness of any kind and will either be forced to retreat or destroyed by the opposing force.

It is important, however, that a wraith be killed if attacked. If a wraith is able to escape, it may become furious that it was attacked and will release its rage on the world. A wraith’s anger is so powerful that it emitted in waves of energy from the creature and can steal the will to live from entire villages. When the villages are no longer able to withstand the depression brought onto their lives by the wraith, the creature will take their souls and continue on its aimless journey.

Types of Wraiths

Lore tells us that there are several types of wraiths. The most common kind of wraith has been described above and has an extreme rage that motivates its actions. Some variations of this first type of wraith are incredibly intelligent and capable of holding grudges into their undead state. They will target an individual that they perceive has wronged them until they have captured their soul and can force them to wander outside of the spirit world for eternity.

A second kind of wraith is described as being a parasitic kind of ghost-demon. These creatures are demons that inhabit any type of empty space until they find a human to meld with. However, unlike most creatures who possess, these wraiths do not make their presence known to the victim. It is unlikely that the affected person will ever know that they have been possessed by this demon. This type of wraith is also not believed to hold any sort of magical powers of its own. While it does have more power than a human, it will not exercise these powers over the will of the human, making it very unlikely that the powers will ever be discovered. There are, however, a few cases in which humans develop demonic powers because of wraith possessions. Perhaps the most notable thing about this wraith type however, is its ability to procreate. When a human who has been possessed with this wraith type mates with another human, part of the wraith will bond to the unborn child. The soul of the child melds with the demon, creating a ‘Blood Child.’

There is also a variation of a wraith called a voror. This wraith was also sometimes referred to as a ‘watcher’ or ‘warden.’ This type of wraith follows the soul of a person from the time they are born until the time they die. This is the only type of wraith that is not considered malevolent.

Physical Appearance

The majority of wraiths have never been seen in person, though there are some vague details about their appearance that are known.

There are some legends that describe wraiths as being dark entities with black cloaks. Their arms and legs are corpse-like and extremely thin. Additionally, the face of the wraith is either skeletal or an endless black hole.

There are also legends that say wraiths do not look like anything – they are simply evil entities that occupy any type of empty space they can find.

Motivation of a Wraith

According to lore, some wraiths are parasitic, but not aggressive. They simply look for a host to bond with (human of course) and feed off of the energy of the person. They do not try to exert their will over their victim, they simply use the host to survive and move on when their host dies.

While there are some wraiths that are fairly docile, this doesn’t seem to be the case for the majority of these strange ghosts. Many wraiths are angered about their condition and the events leading up to them losing their souls. These wraiths are incredibly intelligent and sometimes hunt the people that they hold grudges against. This is done until the soul of the unfortunate victim is obtained and forced to wander with the wraith for eternity.

Wraiths are full of malevolence and ill intent. They are consumed by emotions like anger, despair, and hatred. They live to hunt for unfortunate souls to add to their ‘clan’ and wander aimlessly for eternity, taking away hope and the desire to live as they go.

the top pic looks like a black rider from the lord of the rings

Synonyms of wraiths

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Thesaurus Definition of wraiths

Synonyms & Similar Words

• apparitions
• poltergeists
• materializations
• familiar spirits
• doppelgangers
• doppelgängers

Thesaurus Entries Near wraiths

Cite this entry.

“Wraiths.” Merriam-Webster.com Thesaurus , Merriam-Webster, https://www.merriam-webster.com/thesaurus/wraiths. Accessed 18 Oct. 2023.

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Nglish: Translation of wraiths for Spanish Speakers

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  Dictionary entry overview: What does wraith mean?  

• WRAITH (noun)   The noun WRAITH has 1 sense:

  Familiarity information: WRAITH used as a noun is very rare.

  Dictionary entry details  

• WRAITH (noun)

Sense 1

A mental representation of some haunting experience

Classified under:

Nouns denoting cognitive processes and contents

ghost ; shade ; specter ; spectre ; spook ; wraith

Context example:

it aroused specters from his past

Hypernyms ("wraith" is a kind of...):

apparition ; fantasm ; phantasm ; phantasma ; phantom ; shadow (something existing in perception only)

  Context examples  

And leap by leap, like some pale frost wraith , the snowshoe rabbit flashed on ahead.

(The Call of the Wild, by Jack London)

Then the wheels of memory slipped ahead through four years of time, and he was aware of the present, of the books he had opened and the universe he had won from their pages, of his dreams and ambitions, and of his love for a pale wraith of a girl, sensitive and sheltered and ethereal, who would die of horror did she witness but one moment of what he had just lived through—one moment of all the muck of life through which he had waded.

(Martin Eden, by Jack London)

The hunting was perilous; yet the boats, lowered day after day, were swallowed up in the grey obscurity, and were seen no more till nightfall, and often not till long after, when they would creep in like sea- wraiths , one by one, out of the grey.

(The Sea-Wolf, by Jack London)

He did not give the complacent wraith any name, but he took her for his heroine and grew quite fond of her, as well he might, for he gifted her with every gift and grace under the sun, and escorted her, unscathed, through trials which would have annihilated any mortal woman.

(Little Women, by Louisa May Alcott)

Unlike man, whose gods are of the unseen and the overguessed, vapours and mists of fancy eluding the garmenture of reality, wandering wraiths of desired goodness and power, intangible out-croppings of self into the realm of spirit—unlike man, the wolf and the wild dog that have come in to the fire find their gods in the living flesh, solid to the touch, occupying earth-space and requiring time for the accomplishment of their ends and their existence.

(White Fang, by Jack London)

Buck did not know of this, and as he rounded the bend, the frost wraith of a rabbit still flitting before him, he saw another and larger frost wraith leap from the overhanging bank into the immediate path of the rabbit.

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Faith in the unknown: How to define agnostic from those who identify with it

About 29% of U.S. adults are religiously unaffiliated according to a Pew Research study, either identifying as an atheist, agnostic or “nothing in particular.” 

But while atheists and agnostics may fit into the “other” category with religious studies, they’re different identities and systems of belief entirely. This was what University of Toronto researchers set out to accomplish in the study “To Believe or Not to Believe: Stereotypes About Agnostics,” which looks at how agnostics and atheists are stereotyped differently. 

Here’s a glimpse at what being agnostic means.

What does agnostic mean?

The Merriam-Webster dictionary definition of agnostic is “a person who holds the view that any ultimate reality (such as God) is unknown and probably unknowable,” or “one who is not committed to believing in either the existence or nonexistence of God or a god.”

Agnosticism is a belief in the unknown; an identity rooted in the notion that there may be a higher meaning to human life but that humans will “never be able to access that meaning,” says Brandan Robertson, an author and theologian. 

For Kimberly Stover, a support group leader with Recovering from Religion , agnosticism means being “curious (and) open-minded while using logic and being rational.”

Stover, who grew up Christian, is now a member of the deconstruction community and began her journey of agnosticism after studying the Bible from a scholarly lens. 

“I saw mythology, I saw stories, folklore being passed on and through oral tradition, I didn’t see a holy sacred, literal truth anymore,” Stover says. 

Hailed as the “TikTok Pastor,” Robertson uses his platform to discuss Christian agnosticism, among other teachings. After studying the Bible in college, Robertson said he left college “knowing less about God” than he did before he got there. What came next was a journey of “awe and mystery,” a path from “wander to wonder,” he says. 

“I discovered that I actually think that’s the point,” Robertson says. “As finite human beings, we can never know with any objective certainty anything about God or the universe, and that’s not a scary thing.”

Even though nonreligious affiliation is on the rise , agnosticism is not a new belief. The word was first used in 1869 by British biologist and Darwinist T.H. Huxley who used it in opposition to churches. The Christian agnosticism that Robertson ascribes to is also not new – theologian Leslie D. Weatherhead’s 1965 book “The Christian Agnostic” proposes following the teachings of Jesus outside of the doctrines of modern Christianity. 

Changing religion: More young adults are not religious, but Christianity still dominates

Does an agnostic believe in God?

As with any identity, specific beliefs depend on the individual. There’s a notion that any belief in a god would be contradictory to agnosticism, but it’s a bit more complicated than that. 

Veronica Bergstrom, one of the researchers in the University of Toronto study , proposes that agnosticism exists as a four-quadrant model rather than a two-dimensional one. On one side is agnosticism opposite Gnosticism, or the knowing of a God, and on the other is atheism and theism – the disbelief and belief in a God. 

“Someone could be either an agnostic atheist saying ‘I don’t believe in God but I don’t know whether He exists,’ or be an agnostic theist saying ‘I believe in God but I don’t actually know whether He exists,’” Bergstrom told USA TODAY. 

It comes down to belief vs. knowing, which aren’t mutually exclusive, Bergstrom says. That’s precisely the case for Robertson, who says his agnosticism doesn’t undermine or overshadow Christianity. He’s experienced “what (he) knows to be God,” but he uses that hope while also holding to scientific evidence of human existence. 

“I’m still very committed to the Christian expression of spirituality and I can talk Christian and I’m very interested in studying the Christian tradition,” he says. “But at the end of the day, my faith comes down to a humble admission that I don’t know and I don’t think any of us can know.”

But it differs for everyone – Stover says one of the biggest myths she’s seen about agnostics is that they’re still searching (and prime for conversion), which she herself believed when she was a Christian. 

The University of Toronto study showed participants stereotyped agnostics as confused, faithless, indecisive and even cowardly. 

“I’m not wondering if the evangelical God exists,” Stover says. “When I’m saying I’m agnostic, I’m open to a higher power, a higher consciousness, but I’ve already rejected the idea of an evangelical God.”

What are the beliefs of an agnostic? 

Just as values differ across Christianity, Judaism, Hinduism, Buddhism and more religions, the core beliefs of an agnostic are individual. 

“There’s no reason to feel that you need to land anywhere or be any certain label,” Stover says, of deconstructing religion. “Your journey is unique.”

One consistency across many agnostics, however, is the rejection that one sect of religion has got it right. The teachings of Jesus that Robertson clings to are ones that embrace people of all cultures and religious perspectives. That humility lets Robertson and other agnostics consider curiosity outside of institutional tradition. 

Christian agnosticism has been a way for Robertson to connect with “jaded Christians,” especially LGBTQ individuals who have felt rejected by the church, to help “queer your religion” while holding onto hymns, traditions or teachings that still resonate. 

“These words are public forum, they’re open for people to choose if they resonate with them or not,” Robertson says. “I think agnostic is a beautiful word for the spiritual paths that a lot of people are coming to these days beyond institutional religion but still interested in questions of spirit and purpose and consciousness and meaning.”

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'Dragon Ball: Daima' Brings Akira Toriyama Back and a Brand New Subtitle

'Dragon Ball: Daima' is the latest series set in this universe, but what does the subtitle even mean and what is the new series about?

Oct. 13 2023, Published 1:56 p.m. ET

• Dragon Ball : Daima is the latest series from Toei Animation, and follows several Dragon Ball Z characters as children.
• The series subtitle, Daima, doesn't have a literal meaning in Japan, but its characters mean "big or great" and "evil."
• The show is set to premiere sometime next fall, and fans are already getting excited.

Although Dragon Ball has existed for more than 30 years, it remains one of the most popular manga and anime series of all time. Following a recent announcement at New York Comic-Con that Toei Animation was working on a new series called Dragon Ball: Daima, many naturally wanted to learn more about the show and what it could be about.

Toei announced that Akira Toriyama, the creator of Dragon Ball , is heavily involved in this series after stepping back from the property years ago. Toei also said that the new show will focus on a number of core Dragon Ball Z characters like Goku and Vegeta after they have been transformed into children, like they were in Dragon Ball GT.

What does Daima mean?

Following the news about the new show, many naturally wondered what Daima means in Japanese, since it's apparently a crucial part of this new show. Strangely, Daima doesn't appear to have any exact meaning in Japanese, at least not with the characters that they used to introduce it. When you literally translated it, though, those two characters separately mean "big or great" and "evil."

That would seem to suggest that the new show will have the subtitle "the great evil," which would certainly be fitting for a Dragon Ball series. The second character, which refers to evil, is the same one used in Japanese to refer to Demon King Piccolo, so it has a history in the Dragon Ball universe. Fans were certainly excited by the news of a new series, and even more because of Akira's involvement.

The details of 'Dragon Ball: Daima' are still fuzzy.

Although Toei has released its first trailer for the new show, we don't have many details on what it's actually about.

What seems clear, though, is that the villain in this new series is aware of the many stories and arcs that Goku has already been through as a character. It also seems clear that basically everyone has been turned into a child, likely because of a wish by the Dragon Balls, but we don't know who cast that wish.

The series is set to premiere sometime next fall, but it sounds like Toei is already deep into development. Akira's involvement will likely get fans even more excited, as it suggests that Dragon Ball may be getting back to the roots that made so many fans fall in love with in the first place.

While details about the plot and what that subtitle actually refers to may be scant at this point, excitement is building and will likely continue to grow over the next year.

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Meteorologists anticipate a 'strong' El Niño in winter 2023 — but what does that actually mean?

Posted: October 13, 2023 | Last updated: October 14, 2023

Winter is still weeks away, but meteorologists are already talking about a snowy winter ahead in the southern Rockies and the Sierra Nevada. They anticipate more storms in the U.S. South and Northeast, and warmer, drier conditions across the already dry Pacific Northwest and the upper Midwest.

One phrase comes up repeatedly with these projections: a strong El Niño is coming.

It sounds ominous. But what does that actually mean? We asked Aaron Levine , an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington whose research focuses on El Niño.

NOAA explains in animations how El Niño forms.

What is a strong El Niño?

During a normal year, the warmest sea surface temperatures are in the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, in what’s known as the Indo-Western Pacific warm pool .

But every few years, the trade winds that blow from east to west weaken, allowing that warm water to slosh eastward and pile up along the equator . The warm water causes the air above it to warm and rise, fueling precipitation in the central Pacific and shifting atmospheric circulation patterns across the basin.

This pattern is known as El Niño , and it can affect weather around the world .

The box shows the Niño 3.4 region as El Niño begins to develop in the tropical Pacific, from January to June 2023.

NOAA Climate.gov

A strong El Niño, in the most basic definition, occurs once the average sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific is at least 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) warmer than normal. It’s measured in an imaginary box along the equator, roughly south of Hawaii, known as the Nino 3.4 Index .

But El Niño is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon, and the atmosphere also plays a crucial role.

What has been surprising about this year’s El Niño – and still is – is that the atmosphere hasn’t responded as much as we would have expected based on the rising sea surface temperatures.

Is that why El Niño didn’t affect the 2023 hurricane season the way forecasts expected?

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is a good example. Forecasters often use El Niño as a predictor of wind shear , which can tear apart Atlantic hurricanes. But with the atmosphere not responding to the warmer water right away, the impact on Atlantic hurricanes was lessened and it turned out to be a busy season .

The atmosphere is what transmits El Niño’s impact . Heat from the warm ocean water causes the air above it to warm and rise, which fuels precipitation. That air sinks again over cooler water.

The rising and sinking creates giant loops in the atmosphere called the Walker Circulation . When the warm pool’s water shifts eastward, that also shifts where the rising and sinking motions happen. The atmosphere reacts to this change like ripples in a pond when you throw a stone in. These ripples affect the jet stream, which steers weather patterns in the U.S.

This year, in comparison with other large El Niño events – such as 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16 – we’re not seeing the same change in where the precipitation is happening. It’s taking much longer to develop, and it’s not as strong.

Part of that, presumably, is related to the whole tropics being very, very warm. But this is still an emerging field of research .

How El Niño will change with global warming is a big and open question. El Niño only happens every few years , and there’s a fair amount of variability between events, so just getting a baseline is tough.

What does a strong El Niño typically mean for US weather?

During a typical El Niño winter , the U.S. South and Southwest are cooler and wetter, and the Northwest is warmer and drier. The upper Midwest tends to be drier, while the Northeast tends to be a little wetter.

The likelihood and the intensity generally scale with the strength of the El Niño event.

El Niño has traditionally been good for the mountain snowpack in California, which the state relies for a large percentage of its water. But it is often not so good for the Pacific Northwest snowpack.

The jet stream takes a very different path in a typical El Niño vs. La Niña winter weather pattern. But these patterns have a great deal of variability. Not every El Niño or La Niña year is the same.

The jet stream plays a role in that shift. When the polar jet stream is either displaced very far northward or southward, storms that would normally move through Washington or British Columbia are steered to California and Oregon instead.

What do the forecasts show for 2023?

Whether forecasters think a strong El Niño will develop depends on whose forecast model they trust.

This past spring, the dynamical forecast models were already very confident about the potential for a strong El Niño developing. These are big models that solve basic physics equations, starting with current oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

However, statistical models, which use statistical predictors of El Niño calculated from historical observations, were less certain.

Even in the most recent forecast model outlook , the dynamical forecast models were predicting a stronger El Niño than the statistical models were.

If you go by just a sea surface temperature-based El Niño index, the forecast is for a fairly strong El Niño.

But the indices that incorporate the atmosphere are not responding in the same way. We’ve seen atmospheric anomalies – as measured by cloud height monitored by satellites or sea-level pressure at monitoring stations – on and off in the Pacific since May and June, but not in a very robust fashion . Even in September, they were nowhere near as large as they were in 1982, in terms of overall magnitude.

We’ll see if the atmosphere catches up by wintertime, when El Niño peaks.

How long do El Niños last?

Often during El Niño events – particularly strong El Niño events – the sea surface temperature anomalies collapse really quickly during the Northern Hemisphere spring. Almost all end in April or May.

One reason is that El Niño sows the seeds of its own demise. When El Niño happens, it uses up that warm water 054 Eventually, it has eroded its fuel 013<3551:OOWWVC%3E2.0.CO;2).

The surface can stay warm for a while, but once the heat from the subsurface is gone and the trade winds return, the El Niño event collapses. At the end of past El Niño events, the sea surface anomaly dropped very fast and we saw conditions typically switch to La Niña – El Niño’s cooler opposite.

Aaron Levine , Atmospheric Research Scientist, CICOES, University of Washington

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article .

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Middle East crisis — explained

The conflict between Israel and Palestinians — and other groups in the Middle East — goes back decades. These stories provide context for current developments and the history that led up to them.

What is a kibbutz? The roots of Israel's communal villages where violence raged

Becky Sullivan

Children play at a kindergarten surrounded by decorated concrete blast walls designed to protect from rocket and mortar fire in 2015 in the southern Israeli Kibbutz of Nahal Oz near the border with the Gaza Strip. Menahem Kahana/AFP file photo via Getty Images hide caption

Children play at a kindergarten surrounded by decorated concrete blast walls designed to protect from rocket and mortar fire in 2015 in the southern Israeli Kibbutz of Nahal Oz near the border with the Gaza Strip.

Some of the worst violence from this week's Hamas attacks in Israel took place in small Israeli communities near Gaza called kibbutzim.

Kfar Aza, Be'eri, Nahal Oz, Magen — all of them small, sleepy kibbutzim, the Hebrew plural for kibbutz, whose names have been printed across newspaper headlines and TV chyrons since becoming the sites of atrocities and warfare. Kibbutz residents have been killed and taken hostage at a scale that has shocked those who escaped unscathed.

The kibbutz is a uniquely Israeli phenomenon with a significant cultural legacy and an important role in the nation's history. Here's what to know.

Middle East

Families of hostages taken by hamas militants are desperate amid threats of execution, what is a kibbutz.

The word itself means "gathering" in Hebrew. Kibbutzim are a communal living situation unique to Israel. There are about 270 kibbutzim dotted across Israel.

At their heart, kibbutzim are small towns — typically with somewhere between 100 and 1,000 residents — historically centered around collective farms. In recent decades, some have come to thrive on modern industry and tourism.

Central to the kibbutz are roots in socialist and Marxist ideas about collective living. Early kibbutzim were exercises in radical democracy, said David Leach, author of the book Chasing Utopia: The Future of the Kibbutz in a Divided Israel .

Israeli soldiers inspect the engine from a paraglider that Palestinian militants used a few days earlier in an attack on the Kfar Aza kibbutz near the border with Gaza, on Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2023. Amir Levy/Getty Images hide caption

Israeli soldiers inspect the engine from a paraglider that Palestinian militants used a few days earlier in an attack on the Kfar Aza kibbutz near the border with Gaza, on Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2023.

"There was no private property. They had their meals together in many cases. They raised their children communally," Leach said.

"I would say they are considered one of the most successful experiments in voluntary socialism," said Ran Abramitzky, a professor of economics at Stanford University. "Jewish immigrants who founded kibbutzim rejected capitalism and wanted to form a more socialist society."

Kibbutz residents have never made up a majority of Israel's residents. (Currently, less than 3% of Israel's population live on one.) Despite their small numbers, kibbutzim have had outsized cultural and political influence on Israel for much of its history, with many politicians, military leaders, intellectuals and artists all coming from kibbutzim. Politics in kibbutzim are associated with the left-wing and peace solutions.

He watched his family get taken by Hamas fighters. Now he wants Israel to fight back

When did they start.

The first kibbutz was established in 1910, and over the decades that followed, dozens were formed across the territory that would become Israel.

Historically, many were formed by young Jews from eastern Europe who believed in the Zionist mission of forming a Jewish homeland in Palestine, which was once part of the Ottoman Empire and later under British control. Others came to escape antisemitism and, later, the Holocaust.

"The kibbutz was for them more like an extended family. They provided safety nets," said Abramitzky, who also authored the book The Mystery of the Kibbutz: Egalitarian Principles in a Capitalist World.

Before the formation of the state of Israel, the kibbutz played an important role in the Zionist mission of state-building. In the 1930s and 1940s, as it became clear that the creation of a Jewish state was likely, some kibbutzim were placed strategically near regions like Gaza in order to help stake the future claim.

The Picture Show

Photos: war in israel and gaza.

"If you look at any map of Israel, you can almost connect the dots around the border regions, and there will be kibbutzim," said Leach, who is also a professor of writing at the University of Victoria in Canada.

That dual purpose fed the early stereotype of a kibbutz resident, or a kibbutznik, as a combination of farmer and fighter — someone who was there to both "farm the land but also establish its borders and defend it," Leach said.

What is life like there now?

Most kibbutzim have given up the traditional systems of communal living. Typically, residents with jobs keep their own income, and parents raise their own children.

They are largely considered to be quiet, idyllic places to live, said Abramitzky. Many have aging populations.

"It's this picturesque village in the countryside, with small apartments surrounded by these lush green walking paths, swimming pool, cultural centers, the dining hall," he said. "It's typically — ironically — an incredibly peaceful and safe place."

Power goes out in Gaza, as Israel tightens siege and bombs the Palestinian territory

While residents are still often left-leaning, kibbutzim are increasingly politically diverse, said Leach of the University of Victoria.

"Even though you have people who are more oriented toward peace and reconciliation, others have their attitudes hardening. And that's only going to happen more after the recent attacks," he said.

In kibbutzim located close to the border with Gaza, rockets from Hamas had long been a semiregular part of life.

But now, the small communities within eyeshot of Gaza have been subjected to more violence than residents ever imagined. The streets of tiny Nahal Oz were filled with bodies after Israeli soldiers cleared the area of Hamas fighters, Israeli officials say. The Israeli military is using the farming community Kfar Aza as a staging ground for operations.

What is the Gaza Strip? Here's what to know

And in Be'eri, a kibbutz located a few miles southeast of Gaza with just over 1,000 residents, Israeli authorities say more than 100 people were killed and others kidnapped.

One of the missing residents was Vivian Silver, 74, a woman who had spent her retirement pursuing peace in the region, her son Yonatan Zeigen told NPR .

"She would drive sick Palestinians from Gaza to Israeli hospitals. So apart from being a wonderful mother and grandmother, that was her essence," Zeigen said.