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There are 3 main reasons Mike Lynch's superyacht may have sunk. None give much hope for finding more survivors.

• Tech tycoon Mike Lynch is missing after his superyacht sank off Sicily during a storm.
• The Bayesian yacht sank near Palermo amid severe weather, with six people still missing.
• Authorities are investigating the cause while search efforts continue for Lynch and others.

Mike Lynch , a controversial tech tycoon, remains missing after his superyacht sank off the coast of Sicily on Monday.

The 183-foot Bayesian superyacht was carrying 22 people when it sank during stormy weather near Porticello, Palermo.

Fifteen people were rescued, including Lynch's wife, Angela Bacares. Six passengers remain missing.

One body was recovered and is believed to be that of Recaldo Thomas, a Canadian-Antiguan chef who worked on the vessel, according to BBC News.

Divers on Wednesday entered the superyacht after breaking a window. They now have to contend with narrow corridors and floating debris as they search for survivors.

There are several theories about what caused the vessel to sink, but none carry much chance of survival for the missing.

A dangerous weather phenomenon

The City Council of Bagheria said the wreck was likely caused by bad weather in a press release published on Monday.

A strong storm hit the area about an hour before the superyacht sank, it said.

Witnesses said they saw a waterspout — a tornado-like column of wind found in water — before the sinking, BBC News reported.

According to data from the International Centre for Waterspout Research , cited by the BBC, there were 18 waterspouts off the coast of Italy on Monday.

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Matthew Schanck, a maritime search and rescue expert, told Business Insider that the situation was "unprecedented" because it's difficult for meteorologists to predict when waterspouts will occur.

Rick Shema, a consulting meteorologist, told USA Today that waterspouts are rare and can be triggered by unusually hot weather.

Shema said the water was 83.7 degrees, more than three degrees hotter than an average day for the area.

"Hurricanes can form at 80 degrees. This was almost four degrees higher than that," he said.

Tornadoes usually reach up to 300mph, while waterspouts can reach 120mph, Shema said.

"Even an average tornado, 120 miles an hour, that's a lot of wind," he said, adding that it would "heel the boat over for sure."

The ship's mast could have been damaged

Other factors may have contributed to the 56-meter superyacht's fall — but the details are murky.

Karsten Borner, the captain of another yacht who witnessed the sinking, told Italy's Corriere della Sera Daily that he saw the ship's mast "bend and then snap," according to part of the interview cited by the BBC.

However, Marco Tilotta, a spokesperson for the Palermo fire service divers' unit, told AFP that the ship had been seen lying on its side fully intact, BBC reported.

"If the mast was broken, that would be a significant thing that would be reported," Schanck told the BBC.

Speaking to BI, Schanck said it's possible the mast could have been damaged during the sinking, but the conflicting reports make it difficult to say.

He said there's also the question of whether the keel — a weight underneath the boat to keep it balanced and upright — was deployed.

Either way, he said the construction of the ship was unlikely to be a contributing factor, as it was "designed and constructed to rigorous international standards."

"There's no indication that there's any sort of breach of any international maritime construction or safety standards," he said.

Open doors and windows

Soaring temperatures in the area may have caused passengers to leave windows and doors open.

This would have allowed the yacht to become filled with water quickly during the storm, he said.

"I imagine all the doors were open because it was hot, so there were enough hatches and doors open that it filled with water very quickly and sank like that," Sam Jefferson, former editor of the magazine Sailing Today, said in an interview with PA.

"There has been water ingress into this vessel. That's why it's at the bottom of the seabed," Schanck told BI.

However, he said it's not possible to say whether this happened because of open doors or windows, structural damage to the mast, or because the ship became "heeled over" during the bad weather.

Survival for the missing is unlikely

Italian authorities are investigating the exact cause of the sinking while search crews continue to look for the missing passengers.

A spokesperson for the local fire department told The Independent that the search is "complex," adding that divers operate in 12-minute underwater shifts.

There could be survivors in the ship's air pockets. However, Schanck told USA Today that the chance of survival for those missing seems unlikely.

"My professional opinion is that the casualties will be located within the vessel," he said.

"There is a risk versus benefit in all maritime search and rescue incidents," he said. "Where we start transitioning to a recovery phase, that line shifts."

This sentiment was echoed by Luca Cari, a spokesperson for the local fire service. Speaking to ABC News on Wednesday, Cari said it remains a "rescue operation" rather than a recovery operation. However, he noted that finding survivors in air pockets would be "rather improbable."

It's been more than 48 hours since the ship sank. Nick Sloane, an engineer who worked on the Costa Concordia salvage operation in 2014, told Sky News that there's only a "very small window of time" to find those who could be stuck in air pockets.

"You've got a maximum of two to three days to try to get someone out, so the next 24 hours are critical," he said on Wednesday.

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Divers find 4 bodies during search of superyacht wreckage after it sank off Sicily, 2 more remain

PORTICELLO, Sicily (AP) — Divers searching the  wreck of a superyacht  that sank off Sicily found four bodies Wednesday, as the search continued for two more missing passengers and questions intensified about why the vessel sank so quickly.

Divers and rescue crews unloaded two body bags from the rescue vessels that pulled into port at Porticello. Salvatore Cocina, head of the Sicily civil protection agency, said two other bodies had also been found Wednesday in the wreckage for a total of four.

The discovery indicated that the operation to search the hull on the seabed 50 meters (164 feet) underwater was a recovery one, not a rescue, given the amount of time that had passed and no signs of life had emerged over three days of searching, maritime experts said.

The Bayesian, a 56-meter (184-foot) British-flagged yacht, went down in a storm  early Monday  as it was moored about a kilometer (a half-mile) offshore. Civil protection officials said they believed the ship was struck by a tornado over the water, known as a waterspout, and sank quickly.

Fifteen people escaped in a lifeboat and were rescued by a nearby sailboat. One body was recovered Monday — that of the ship’s Antigua-born chef, Recaldo Thomas.

Six people remained unaccounted for, including British tech magnate  Mike Lynch , his 18-year-old daughter and associates who had successfully defended him in a recent U.S. federal fraud trial.

Investigators from the Termini Imerese Public Prosecutor’s Office, meanwhile, were acquiring evidence for their criminal investigation, which they opened immediately  after the tragedy  even though no formal suspects have been publicly identified.

Questions abound about what caused the superyacht, which was built in 2008 by Italian shipyard Perini Navi, to sink so quickly, when the nearby Sir Robert Baden Powell sailboat was largely spared and managed to rescue the 15 survivors.

Was it merely the case of a freak waterspout that knocked the ship to its side and allowed water to pour in through open hatches? What was the position of the keel, which on a large sailboat such as the Bayesian might have been retractable, to allow it to enter shallower ports?

“There’s a lot of uncertainty as to whether it had a lifting keel and whether it might have been up,” said Jean-Baptiste Souppez, a fellow of the Royal Institute of Naval Architects and the editor of the Journal of Sailing Technology. “But if it had, then that would reduce the amount of stability that the vessel had, and therefore made it easier for it to roll over on its side,” he said in an interview.

Yachts such as the Bayesian are also required to have watertight, sub-compartments that are specifically designed to prevent a rapid, catastrophic sinking even when some parts fill with water.

“So for the vessel to sink, especially this fast, you are really looking at taking water on board very quickly, but also in a number of locations along the length of the vessel, which again indicates that it might have been rolled over on its side,” Souppez said.

Italian coast guard and fire rescue divers, meanwhile, continued the underwater search in dangerous and time-consuming conditions. Because of the depth of the wreck — which is far deeper than most recreational divers are certified for and at a depth that requires special precautions — divers working in tag teams can only spend about 12 minutes at a time searching.

The limited dive time is designed in part to avoid decompression sickness, also known as the “bends,” which can occur when divers stay underwater for long periods and ascend too quickly, allowing nitrogen gas dissolved in the blood to form bubbles.

“The longer you stay, the slower your ascent has to be,” said Simon Rogerson, the editor of SCUBA magazine. He said the tight turnaround time suggests the managers of the operation are trying to limit the risks and recovery time after each dive.

“It sounds like they’re operating essentially on no decompression or very tight decompression, or they’re being extremely conservative,” he said.

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Divers find 4 bodies during search of superyacht wreckage after it sank off sicily, 2 still missing.

PORTICELLO, Sicily (AP) — Divers searching the wreck of a superyacht that sank off Sicily found the bodies of four passengers Wednesday and searched for two more as questions intensified about why the vessel sank so quickly when a nearby sailboat remained largely unscathed.

Rescue crews unloaded three body bags from the rescue vessels that pulled into port at Porticello. Salvatore Cocina, head of the Sicily civil protection agency, said one other body had also been found in the wreckage for a total of four.

The discovery indicated the operation to search the hull on the seabed 50 meters (164 feet) underwater was a recovery one, not a rescue, given the amount of time that had passed and that no signs of life had emerged over three days of searching, maritime experts said.

The Bayesian, a 56-meter (184-foot) British-flagged yacht, went down in a storm early Monday as it was moored about a kilometer (a half-mile) offshore. Civil protection officials said they believed the ship was struck by a tornado over the water, known as a waterspout, and sank quickly.

Fifteen people escaped in a lifeboat and were rescued by a nearby sailboat. One body was recovered Monday — that of the ship’s chef, Recaldo Thomas, of Antigua.

Thomas was born in Canada, according to his cousin David Isaac, but would visit his parents’ homeland of Antigua as a child, moving permanently to the tiny eastern Caribbean island in his early 20s. Italian officials previously listed Antigua as the nationality of someone on board.

The fate of six passengers had driven the search effort, including British tech magnate Mike Lynch , his 18-year-old daughter and associates who had successfully defended him in a recent U.S. federal fraud trial.

Lynch’s spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment Wednesday.

Meanwhile, investigators from the Termini Imerese Public Prosecutor’s Office were acquiring evidence for their criminal investigation, which they opened immediately after the tragedy even though no formal suspects have been publicly identified.

Questions abound about what caused the superyacht, built in 2008 by Italian shipyard Perini Navi, to sink so quickly, when the nearby Sir Robert Baden Powell sailboat was largely spared and managed to rescue the survivors.

Was it merely the case of a freak waterspout that knocked the ship to its side and allowed water to pour in through open hatches? What was the position of the keel, which on a large sailboat such as the Bayesian might have been retractable, to allow it to enter shallower ports?

“There’s a lot of uncertainty as to whether it had a lifting keel and whether it might have been up,” said Jean-Baptiste Souppez, a fellow of the Royal Institute of Naval Architects and the editor of the Journal of Sailing Technology. “But if it had, then that would reduce the amount of stability that the vessel had, and therefore made it easier for it to roll over on its side,” he said in an interview.

The captain of the Sir Robert Baden Powell sailboat, which came to the Bayesian’s rescue, said he had remained anchored with his engines running to try to maintain the ship’s position as the storm, which was forecast, rolled in.

“Another possibility is to heave anchor before the storm and to run downwind at open sea,” Karsten Bornersaid in a text message. But he said that might not have been a viable option for the Bayesian, given its trademark 75-meter (246-foot) tall mast.

“If there was a stability problem, caused by the extremely tall mast, it would not have been better at open sea,” he said.

Yachts like the Bayesian are required to have watertight, sub-compartments that are specifically designed to prevent a rapid, catastrophic sinking even when some parts fill with water.

“So for the vessel to sink, especially this fast, you are really looking at taking water on board very quickly, but also in a number of locations along the length of the vessel, which again indicates that it might have been rolled over on its side,” Souppez said.

Italian coast guard and fire rescue divers continued the underwater search in dangerous and time-consuming conditions. Because of the wreck’s depth, which requires special precautions, divers working in tag teams can only spend about 12 minutes at a time searching.

The limited dive time is designed in part to avoid decompression sickness, also known as the “bends,” which can occur when divers stay underwater for long periods and ascend too quickly, allowing nitrogen gas dissolved in the blood to form bubbles.

“The longer you stay, the slower your ascent has to be,” said Simon Rogerson, the editor of SCUBA magazine. He said the tight turnaround time suggests the operation’s managers are trying to limit the risks and recovery time after each dive.

“It sounds like they’re operating essentially on no decompression or very tight decompression, or they’re being extremely conservative,” he said.

Additionally, the divers are working in extremely tight spaces, with debris floating around them, limited visibility and oxygen tanks on their backs.

“We are trying to advance in tight spaces, but any single thing slows us down,” said Luca Cari, spokesman for the fire rescue service. “An electric panel could set us back for five hours. These aren’t normal conditions. We’re at the limit of possibility.”

“It’s not a question of entering the cabin to inspect it,” he added. “They’ve arrived at the level of the cabins, but it’s not like you can open the door,” he said.

The Italian coast guard said they had reinforced their dive teams and were using underwater remote-controlled robots, which can stay out for six or seven hours at a time and record the surroundings.

The lack of any signs of life and the recovery of bodies led outside experts to conclude that the search was now a recovery effort and investigation to determine how the tragedy had unfolded.

“I think the fact that there’s been quite a lot of diving presence around the vessel and that they haven’t been able to pick up any signs of life inside the vessel, is, is unfortunately, not a particularly good sign,” said Souppez.

Winfield reported from Rome and Kirka from London. Associated Press visual journalists Trisha Thomas in Rome and Silvia Stellacci in Porticello and reporter Anika Kentish in St. John’s, Antigua contributed.

This story has been corrected to reflect that Thomas was born in Canada, not Antigua.

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Divers find four bodies during search of superyacht that sank off Sicily

Italian Firefighters scuba divers bring ashore in a green bag the body of one of the victims of the UK flag vessel Bayesian, Wednesday, Aug. 21, 2024. The sail yacht was hit by a violent sudden storm and sunk early Monday, while at anchor off the Sicilian village of Porticello near Palermo, in southern Italy. (AP Photo/Salvatore Cavalli)

PORTICELLO, Sicily — Divers searching the wreck of a superyacht that sank off Sicily found four bodies Wednesday, as the search continued for two more missing passengers and questions intensified about why the vessel sank so quickly.

Divers and rescue crews unloaded two body bags from the rescue vessels that pulled into port at Porticello. Salvatore Cocina, head of the Sicily civil protection agency, said two other bodies had also been found Wednesday in the wreckage for a total of four.

The discovery indicated that the operation to search the hull on the seabed 50 meters (164 feet) underwater was a recovery one, not a rescue, given the amount of time that had passed and no signs of life had emerged over three days of searching, maritime experts said.

The Bayesian, a 56-meter (184-foot) British-flagged yacht, went down in a storm early Monday as it was moored about a kilometer (a half-mile) offshore. Civil protection officials said they believed the ship was struck by a tornado over the water, known as a waterspout, and sank quickly.

Fifteen people escaped in a lifeboat and were rescued by a nearby sailboat. One body was recovered Monday — that of the ship’s Antigua-born chef, Recaldo Thomas.

Six people remained unaccounted for, including British tech magnate Mike Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter and associates who had successfully defended him in a recent U.S. federal fraud trial.

This picture taken from video released by the Italian Coast Guard on Monday, Aug. 19, 2024, shows the rescue operations in the stretch of Sea near Palermo, Sicily, in southern Italy, where the sail yacht Bayasian under UK flag sank early Monday. (Italian Coast Guard via AP, HO)

Investigators from the Termini Imerese Public Prosecutor’s Office, meanwhile, were acquiring evidence for their criminal investigation, which they opened immediately after the tragedy even though no formal suspects have been publicly identified.

Questions abound about what caused the superyacht, which was built in 2008 by Italian shipyard Perini Navi, to sink so quickly, when the nearby Sir Robert Baden Powell sailboat was largely spared and managed to rescue the 15 survivors.

Was it merely the case of a freak waterspout that knocked the ship to its side and allowed water to pour in through open hatches? What was the position of the keel, which on a large sailboat such as the Bayesian might have been retractable, to allow it to enter shallower ports?

“There’s a lot of uncertainty as to whether it had a lifting keel and whether it might have been up,” said Jean-Baptiste Souppez, a fellow of the Royal Institute of Naval Architects and the editor of the Journal of Sailing Technology. “But if it had, then that would reduce the amount of stability that the vessel had, and therefore made it easier for it to roll over on its side,” he said in an interview.

Yachts such as the Bayesian are also required to have watertight, sub-compartments that are specifically designed to prevent a rapid, catastrophic sinking even when some parts fill with water.

“So for the vessel to sink, especially this fast, you are really looking at taking water on board very quickly, but also in a number of locations along the length of the vessel, which again indicates that it might have been rolled over on its side,” Souppez said.

Italian coast guard and fire rescue divers, meanwhile, continued the underwater search in dangerous and time-consuming conditions. Because of the depth of the wreck — which is far deeper than most recreational divers are certified for and at a depth that requires special precautions — divers working in tag teams can only spend about 12 minutes at a time searching.

The limited dive time is designed in part to avoid decompression sickness, also known as the “bends,” which can occur when divers stay underwater for long periods and ascend too quickly, allowing nitrogen gas dissolved in the blood to form bubbles.

“The longer you stay, the slower your ascent has to be,” said Simon Rogerson, the editor of SCUBA magazine. He said the tight turnaround time suggests the managers of the operation are trying to limit the risks and recovery time after each dive.

“It sounds like they’re operating essentially on no decompression or very tight decompression, or they’re being extremely conservative,” he said.

Winfield reported from Rome and Kirka from London. Trisha Thomas contributed from Rome.

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Divers find 4 bodies during search of superyacht wreckage after it sank off Sicily, 2 more remain

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Divers searching the wreck of a superyacht that sank off Sicily found two bodies Wednesday, as the search continued for four more missing passengers and questions intensified about why the vessel sank so quickly.

Divers and rescue crews unloaded one body bag from one of the rescue vessels that pulled into port at Porticello. Salvatore Cocina, head of the Sicily civil protection agency, said a second corpse had also been found Wednesday.

The discovery indicated that the operation to search the wreckage on the seabed 164 feet underwater was a recovery one, not a rescue, given the amount of time that had passed and no signs of life had emerged over three days of searching, maritime experts said.

The Bayesian, a 184-foot British-flagged yacht, went down in a storm early Monday as it was moored about a half-mile offshore. Civil protection officials said they believed the ship was struck by a tornado over the water, known as a waterspout, and sank quickly.

Fifteen people escaped in a lifeboat and were rescued by a nearby sailboat. One body was recovered Monday — that of the ship’s Antigua-born chef, Recaldo Thomas.

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Six people remained unaccounted for, including British tech magnate Mike Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter and associates who had successfully defended him in a recent U.S. federal fraud trial.

Investigators from the Termini Imerese Public Prosecutor’s Office, meanwhile, were acquiring evidence for their criminal investigation, which they opened immediately after the tragedy even though no formal suspects have been publicly identified.

Questions abound about what caused the superyacht, which was built in 2008 by Italian shipyard Perini Navi, to sink so quickly, when the nearby Sir Robert Baden Powell sailboat was largely spared and managed to rescue the 15 survivors.

Was it merely the case of a freak waterspout that knocked the ship to its side and allowed water to pour in through open hatches? What was the position of the keel, which on a large sailboat such as the Bayesian might have been retractable, to allow it to enter shallower ports?

“There’s a lot of uncertainty as to whether it had a lifting keel and whether it might have been up,” said Jean-Baptiste Souppez, a fellow of the Royal Institute of Naval Architects and the editor of the Journal of Sailing Technology. “But if it had, then that would reduce the amount of stability that the vessel had, and therefore made it easier for it to roll over on its side,” he said in an interview.

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Yachts such as the Bayesian are also required to have watertight, sub-compartments that are specifically designed to prevent a rapid, catastrophic sinking even when some parts fill with water.

“So for the vessel to sink, especially this fast, you are really looking at taking water on board very quickly, but also in a number of locations along the length of the vessel, which again indicates that it might have been rolled over on its side,” Souppez said.

Italian coast guard and fire rescue divers, meanwhile, continued the underwater search in dangerous and time-consuming conditions. Because of the depth of the wreck — which is far deeper than most recreational divers are certified for and at a depth that requires special precautions — divers working in tag teams can only spend about 12 minutes at a time searching.

The limited dive time is designed in part to avoid decompression sickness, also known as the “bends,” which can occur when divers stay underwater for long periods and ascend too quickly, allowing nitrogen gas dissolved in the blood to form bubbles.

“The longer you stay, the slower your ascent has to be,” said Simon Rogerson, the editor of SCUBA magazine. He said the tight turnaround time suggests the managers of the operation are trying to limit the risks and recovery time after each dive.

“It sounds like they’re operating essentially on no decompression or very tight decompression, or they’re being extremely conservative,” he said.

Winfield, Kirka and Rosa write for the Associated Press. Winfield reported from Rome and Kirka from London. Trisha Thomas contributed from Rome.

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Why did the superyacht Bayesian sink?

Hatches and doors left open overnight on the superyacht Bayesian may have caused it to sink in Italy , a sailing expert has said.

Sam Jefferson, editor of magazine Sailing Today, believes the vessel’s huge mast is also likely to have contributed to the deadly event.

One body has been found and six people remain missing after Bayesian sank off the coast of Palermo , Sicily , in the early hours of Monday.

Tech tycoon Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah were among those still to be found , along with Jonathan Bloomer, chairman of UK insurance firm Hiscox who is also the president of Morgan Stanley International, and his wife Judy, and Clifford Chance lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife.

It is believed the ship was struck by a tornado over the water, known as a waterspout.

Weather records show temperatures reached around 33C the day before the sinking, which may have led to the vessel’s occupants wanting air to flow through while they slept.

Mr Jefferson told the PA news agency: “I would have said that the boat got hit very hard by the wind, it was pinned over on its side.

“I imagine all the doors were open because it was hot, so there were enough hatches and doors open that it filled with water very quickly and sank like that.

“The reason it got pinned over so hard was because the mast is huge.

“It acted almost like a sail. (It) pushed the boat hard over on its side.

“(The boat) filled with water before it could right.

“This is all speculation, but that’s the only logical explanation.”

Mr Jefferson added that such incidents are “incredibly rare”, describing the chances of a yacht being hit by a waterspout as “minuscule”.

The yacht’s aluminium mast measures 72 metres, making it one of the largest in the world among sailing yachts.

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Karsten Borner, the captain of another yacht which was near Bayesian, told news agency Reuters he witnessed the ship go “flat on the water, and then down”.

Salvo Cocina, of Sicily’s civil protection agency, said: “They were in the wrong place at the wrong time.”

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